Situation Iraq: Meltown in the candy store...
As I read the Iraq Study Group Report, I began to envision Iraq as a two-year-old that the US had recently taken into a candy store.
Taking the kid into the candy store seemed like a great idea at the time. I mean, the kid was all fussy and whiney and everything. A bit of candy seemed like just the thing to get the little punk to shut up. But once the child saw so much candy, the bad behaviors got even worse! Greed and indecision took over and the child screamed bloody murder when his request for ALL the candy in the store was quite reasonably refused. I suppose the US should have known that taking the kid into the store without properly preparing him for the experience was a bad idea. He should have been told beforehand where he was going and what he would see and what would be expected of him. That might have helped avoid the whole infantile misunderstanding. But nothing can be done for that now. Now the US is standing in the middle of a candy store with a flailing toddler. What's the parent of a fledgling democracy to do?
Well, apparently, just what many other parents do when their kids throw tantrums. Walk away from the child tentatively and say, "Okay then, I'm going to leave…" Take a few more steps. "I'm leaving now, good bye!" Open the candy store door. "If you can be a big boy maybe I'll come back, but if you're going to be like this I'm leaving you here all alone with all of these strangers!" Of course, this is all just a ruse. All the while the parent fully intends to stay in the candy store as long as it takes in order to calm the child down. And, of course, money is no object either, although it's important for the child to believe otherwise.
Now what many people don't know is that there are some parents who pull this con not so much against the child but against the other patrons of the store! It's true! Because what these parents understand is that the other patrons hate to hear the kid throw a fit even more than the parent does! Thus, if the parent seems to be giving up on helping the child calm down, some other patron or patrons might step up and say to the shop-keeper, "Here's $20! For cripes sakes stick something in that brat's cakehole!"
All of this maneuvering on the part of the parent is called "diplomacy". Shame on the parent for not using more of it before going into the candy store, but really the parent didn't do anything wrong. Invading the store was the right move and the parent really can't be faulted for expecting the best out of the child. You know, like showing a little gratitude for being offered candy in the first place. But, hindsight is 20/20, as they say, and the important thing now is that the present reality is properly dealt with.
When I finished reading the report and was satisfied that a very sound strategy for dealing with the two-year-old was suggested, I almost immediately remembered something very important: Iraq isn't a spoiled two-year-old. And the US isn't a parent to the rest of the countries of the world.
Of course, there wasn't anything wrong with the Study Group's assessments and recommendations in principle. Certainly the situation in Iraq is dire and a broad net of diplomacy is called for. But if our "new" approach takes place within a context of condescension, then it isn't really a new approach at all. We must stop reaching out to the Iraqis with the posture of rescuers and begin extending the hand of friendship instead.
Expressing regret for our errors and showing a little humility in our attitude couldn't hurt either.
delicious
diggAssessing the Effectiveness of the Surge
The Journal of Foreign Affairs had an excellent, in-depth article on the effect of the surge--it goes into a history both of the Bush strategy in Iraq and a more long-range history of the region. Here's on quotation that gives a sense of the main point:
"The surge may have brought transitory successes -- although if the spate of attacks in February is any indication, the decrease in violence may already be over -- but it has done so by stoking the three forces that have traditionally threatened the stability of Middle Eastern states: tribalism, warlordism, and sectarianism."
In other words, we are making the same mistake that the British made in Iraq after WW1.
Iraq Strategy
Fixing Iraq Without US
There was a very interesting article in my Sunday paper today about a new approach being tried in Iraq by a group composed of negotiators from South Africa and Ireland. The entire article is here, but I'll also post some highlights below.
The negotiators base their approach on the following principles:
1. Iraq, like South Africa and Ireland is a divided society, divided not by "a dizzying clash of civilizations " but by "a particular set of historical circumstances. Such conflicts are rooted in basic human emotions of fear, mistrust, and prejudice."
2. "Fixing a divided society requires a set of tools not associated with traditional diplomacy: starting small, bringing disparate groups to neutral territory, and not expecting answers to emerge from governments...Self -determination and ownership of the process are also crucial....Nothing [is] imposed, and those still engaged in conflict [have] to make all the big decisions."
3. "...it is OK, in fact probably necessary for the opposing parties to confront each other outside their home turf...political enemies or rivals [can] engage one another more openly and honestly if they [get] away from the fishbowl of domestic politics--and if they [don't] give press conferences while negotiating,..."
The article goes on to describe a recent meeting between the negotiators and Sunni and Shia politicians from Iraq as well as representatives of various militia and insurgency groups. "The Africans and the Irish began by explaining not how they succeeded, but where they had initially failed. It was a deliberate strategy to not appear as preachy know-it-alls. When the Northern Irish politicians explained the dificulty of trying to engage with enemies at the same time they were trying to reassure their individual constituencies they were not selling out, the Iraqis nodded in recognition...One of the Iraqis came up to O'Malley and said, 'We have never talked this frankly to each other about our problems.' "
Follow-up Ireland
An editorial by the leader of this approach, Padraig O'Malley, following the shooting death of British soldiers by an IRA splinter group, is a reminder that peace is achieved not through a silencing of feelings of loss and vengeance but by allowing both sides to air those feelings, and to recognize that they are shared across the divide.
Follow-Up
This group, headed by Padraig O'Malley, has recently undertaken its second meeting of Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish leaders to try and work toward reconciliation. Story is here.
Another story a few days later giving details on the outcome of this meeting.
A period of religious/ethnic tolerance in Iraq