Notes on LOST episodes 3.7 to 3.16

Episode 3.7 Update:

If synchronicity is treated as a scientific concept (and I think Lost is meant to be a science fiction show) then the logical extension of this idea is that there is some calculus one can employ to predict the future.  This further suggests a mathematical formula and perhaps a computer simulation that can be used to administer the calculus.  Some of you will recognize this plot device from other science fiction stories, such as Isaac Asimov's "Foundation Series".  (In his books, the equation is called "psychohistory".)  Apparently, the creators of Lost have revealed that such an equation exists in the "Lost" universe.  (They reveal this in "The Lost Experience" which I have not seen, only heard about.)  Apparently, "the numbers" are factors in this equation as they apply to the ultimate demise of humankind.  Change any one of the factors in the equation (any one of the values of "the numbers") and you might avert disaster for the people of Earth.

Now this means that any given six-number sequence can represent a possible destiny for humanity.  Which destiny do the numbers in Lost represent? A positive one? Or a negative one? How many possible positive ones or negative ones are there? We don't know.  But in Lost, the sequence "4 8 15 16 23 42" is clearly an important one.

Keep in mind, though, that whatever equation or simulation is used to predict the future, its results are subject to errors and paradoxes.  The equation likely reveals probable futures rather than one set future, and those probabilities likely change frequently as the passage of time adds new data to the simulation's initial conditions.

Knowing what the numbers represent in a broad sense gives us quite a lot of information, actually, but let's reveal that information by following a logical path.

The most important factual question in regard to the numbers is, "Why are the numbers etched into the hatch?"  This is the most important question because it's really the only question regarding the numbers that hasn't been answered by the show in any way.  Why did Hurley play the numbers? He heard them from a guy who muttered them.  Why'd the guy mutter them? He got them from a broadcast.  How were they broadcast? Human beings entered them into a computer and transmitted them.  Why were humans required to transmit them? Well, that question hasn't been answered directly, but obviously there is something important about the numbers NOT being entered automatically, and there is some reason the "containment" of the electromagnetic energy begins to fail periodically.  The "not automatically" part has to be more than just because the Dharma Initiative wanted to use Swan Station as a Skinner Box (in other words, they had a situation where a computer was doing mindless work and they simply saw an experimental opportunity and engineered the task for humans instead of machines) because the activity was being broadcast remotely; somebody other than the behavioral scientists needed to know the button was being pushed.  More to the point, they needed to know that particular button was being pushed, and thus all the numbers had to be entered.  Those particular numbers must have told the people off the island that the broadcast came from that particular hatch.  Thus, the question becomes, "Why are the numbers associated with that particular hatch?" And this question, I believe, is functionally equivalent to asking why the numbers are etched on the outside of the hatch; that is, the numbers must designate the hatch in some fashion, and why is that?

The most obvious explanation seems to be that the Swan Station was primarily designed to help bring about OR suppress the particular future defined by the factors "4 8 15 16 23 42".  That is, the containment of the electromagnetic energy on the island for a given period of time was to bring about OR suppress a specific future predicted by the Valenzetti Equation.  The numbers ultimately identify the function of the Swan Station in particular.

One possible reason the numbers were broadcast is because the Swan Station only needed to function for a set period of time (and then be destroyed) in order for the desired future to be manifested OR suppressed.  Therefore, the containment had to be set to fail every so often, the time variable determined by a particular margin of error.  A human had to reset it because at some point the reset had to fail, and the likelihood that a human would fail at the appropriate moment was more probable than the likelihood that an automated system would.  (Remember, the precise, optimal moment when the station should fail might change over time.)  The broadcast of the numbers would tell the receivers of the broadcast if the Swan Station in particular was still functioning, if it was no longer functioning, and, more importantly, if it ceased functioning too early or continued functioning too long.

Ben obviously wanted the station to cease functioning.  He tricked John into not pressing the button.  The logical reasons for this are:  the station functioned too long according to the Dharma Initiative; Ben wanted the future represented by the numbers to be realized OR suppressed for his own reasons; or the station's role in the future of humankind was no longer relevant either way and Ben wanted the station destroyed for reasons that only pertain to the islands (this is quite likely, since the numbers broadcast was allowed to be hijacked by Rousseau and remain so for 16 years).  It remains a question as to whether or not Ben intended for Desmond to activate the emergency measures, and it's impossible to know right now what would have happened had Desmond not done so.  (There is a contradiction in the show related to this; I'll note it below.)  Likewise, it's too early to say what motive Ben had in encouraging the destruction of the station.

Also, in episode 3.7 some genetic experimentation has been suggested.  Julie observes scans of the womb of a woman in her 20s, but says the scans suggest the woman is in her 70s.  Such premature aging has been observed in cloned mammals.  So perhaps cloning or some other genetic manipulation is going on.  It's easy to imagine that one of the factors in the Valenzetti Equation pertains to human genetics/evolution.

"Many universe" theories are consistent with this conception of the show's plot, as any equation will only show one a set number of possible futures, each actually representing distinct probable realities.  The Others' interest in Walt was his ability to arrive at the universe he wanted, unlike the rest of us who typically have to wait to see which reality will come to be, many times after we've put a great deal of effort into trying to bring a very different reality about.  The Others are very interested in arriving at a very specific reality and avoiding several other less desirable ones.

This also reveals why the Others are so keen on manipulating people to want certain things.  (Ben told Jack he wanted to get Jack to want to help him.)  If they can get people on the island to want their reality, apparently that increases the probability that the reality they desire will actually come to pass.  The island itself seems to facilitate this process of creating the reality one wants (or needs).

But you can only manipulate people who don't already know what they want.  Thus troubled people with pasts that are fraught with conflict are most valuable, and as soon as a person knows what he or she wants and has no inner conflict (as happened with Mr. Eko) he or she can no longer be useful, and thus he or she is subject to destruction by the Black Mist (which, this suggests, is programmed to seek out suitable subjects for study or manipulation and discard the rest).

This, anyway, is what I think can be discerned from what the show has revealed so far.  Some of it could be reaching a bit.  We'll have to see.

(The contradiction I alluded to above is this:  In episode 3.7, it's suggested that one reason Ben is being helped by Jack and not somebody "on the outside" is because of the communications issues that resulted from the Swan Station being destroyed.  However, Ben suggested that the entire reason Jack was abducted was because Ben wanted Jack to help him, and the abduction occurred just before the Swan Station was destroyed.  If Jack was abducted to help, but that help was only required because of communications problems, then Jack's abduction should have come AFTER the Swan Station was destroyed.  One way to resolve this contradiction is to posit that Ben knew the Station would be destroyed in the particular way it was destroyed, and that he chose to allow Jack to become his only hope of survival rather than have his health problem addressed before communications became disrupted.  All of this suggests that Ben foresaw everything that occurred in episodes six and seven, and those events served his purposes in some fashion.  Of course, another way to resolve the contradiction is to posit that Ben lied when he suggested that he abducted Jack primarily for the purposes of the surgery.  Or, perhaps, Ben abducted Jack so he'd have a "back-up" plan for addressing his problem if something went wrong, and the destruction of the Swan Station forced him to activate "plan B" sooner than he'd imagined he might have to.  All intriguing possibilities.)

Episode 3.8 Update

"Remote viewing" is a classic subject of inquiry among parapsychologists.  It would seem likely that it would pop up in the "Lost" mythos eventually, and perhaps it's done so in the form of the "voices" that are sometimes heard when nobody appears to be present, and also in the strange "watchers" often spotted in the show.

At least one crash survivor, Walt, exhibited extraordinary abilities and he was eventually taken.  It's possible that all of the other abductees either had such abilities or showed evidence of latent ones.  (Was Walt using something like remote viewing when he communicated with his father via the computer in the Swan Station?) Perhaps presently they are being trained and utilized by the Others.  I doubt they are being used so much for surveillance.  Their "watching" activity is likely still in the "training mode".  Their ultimate job, I'm guessing, will be to help the Others see the future and avoid the catastrophe that is looming in the near future of humankind (per the Valenzetti Equation).

This leads to an interesting question:  When Jack actually saw the "watchers" and talked to them (while he was in the cage in 3.8), what mental state was he in? Is there something unique about Jack's ability to see them?

Apparently Jack is going to be very important to the future of humanity.  Like Moses and Jesus, he senses his great importance and feels frightened and alone.  It will be interesting to watch how his destiny continues to develop.

Not so much related to 3.8:  Jacob's List... the one that Jack was supposedly not on... was it made before the plane crash?

Perhaps the reason Jack wasn't on Jacob's List is because Jacob's List WAS made before the plane crashed.  Recall that Jack had to argue passionately in order to get on the flight.

This idea suggests several possibilities, among which may include:

Jacob is a clairvoyant working for the Others.

Jacob is the name of the computer they use to predict the future.

Jacob is the name of the technician who works with said computer.

Jacob is the name given to the Black Mist.

3.10 Update

Episode 3.10 may have revealed that Hugo has the ability to make manifest that which he imagines. Certainly this was demonstrated when the van began working, but it might also have been shown when his bad luck went from simple, easily explainable things to highly improbable and dramatic things, like his newly purchased restaurant being destroyed by a meteorite.

As I’ve attempted to suggest elsewhere, most of the things that transpire on the island can be categorized under the rubric of “paranormal psychology”. This term covers so many kinds of phenomenon that more elaborate plot devices and theories are hardly required: ESP, telepathy, precognition, remote viewing, telekinesis, electromagnetic anomalies, and so on all fit under this broad umbrella. In particular, the show seems to like to focus most on the ability of some to see events before they happen or to make things happen by way of mental concentration.

John predicted the rain, found Charlie’s guitar, and could perceive Walt’s gifts. Indeed, Walt seems to have been able to make things happen. Rose knew her husband would return. Desmond has some precognitive abilities. Hugo seems to be able to make good or bad things happen.

Sawyer and Kate both have pasts that might have relied on some kind of “sixth sense” to pick the right mark or to stay one step ahead of pursuers.

Jack’s work would have benefited from having a significant measure of intuition.

Note also that such gifts break the rules of our common sense understandings of time and space. One thing the synchronicity concept (that I’ve noted elsewhere) suggests is that time as we perceive it is a bit of an illusion. In truth, the past and the future are encoded within the present moment, such that a mind properly attuned might perceive the future as clearly as one might perceive the past. Also, one might have the power to pick via concentration alone which future one desires to become manifest. One can imagine that the Dharma Initiative would be very interested in abilities such as these, since their purpose seems to be to avert a cataclysm that will spell the end of humanity.

Perhaps it is just such gifts as these that tie certain survivors to the island, and to each other.

So here's my general speculation on the show so far:

Researchers of paranormal psychology in the 70s came to understand the true nature of time; that in truth the past and future are encoded into the present moment. Not only does this fact facilitate psychic events, but it allows researchers to create mathematical models that can predict the future. Researchers developed such a model 30 years ago and, to their horror, the end of humanity was revealed to be not so distant. As behavioral psychologists, their natural inclination was to find out how they could use their scientific tools and the paranormal forces they’d harnessed to steer future events away from such a dark fate. All of this, it seems to me, is the bedrock of the show.

Human genetics seems to play a role in the events that lead to the end of humanity. In particular, the emergence of people who exhibit unique abilities appears to be a key issue. Of all abilities a subject of paranormal psychology might have, the abilities to see or, even more importantly, make the future are the most critical of all.

The future-predicting models could sometimes reveal the enormous influence of specific individuals upon humanity’s future, and it makes sense that at least some of these individuals would be the “new humans” with extraordinary abilities. These individuals needed to be identified, found, analyzed, and their behaviors needed to be properly steered. Of course, they could not know that their behavior was being steered. If they were to know the precise details of their destiny, they might over-think it and mess it up, or even choose to reject it. Too much knowledge on the parts of the “key subjects” would make them much more unpredictable, but absolute predictability was called for if humanity would be saved.

For so many key subjects to be on one flight was not an accident. Their presence together on the flight was a combination of the subtle manipulation by the “powers that be” and the fate of the world playing itself out. When the plane finally crashed on the island, it was a signal that apocalyptic events were about to commence, and the list of key subjects had been narrowed down to a new list of “key players”. The clueless saviors of the world had been revealed.

So now the powers that be (among whom are counted the Others, but there might be other factions) are trying to get as many people with “make it happen” powers together in one place… a place that might naturally amplify and/or focus their abilities… so that they can collectively will into existence the “right” future.

(Note that all of this has led not only to the abduction of younger or more impressionable subjects, but also to attempts to “grow” new subjects via genetic manipulation.)

An important point here: the key players cannot do what they are required to do until they WANT to do it. They are, as it were, rats in a maze constructed by the powers that be and destiny, and they won’t eagerly navigate that maze without the proper motivation. It’s that motivation that the powers that be need to very carefully create in each key player.

(I'm also considering whether or not concepts such as those promoted by "The Secret" might be at work, in which case the thing that the key Lost players have in common is particularly strong wills.  "The Secret" promotes the idea that any of us can make the reality we want transpire if only we project the right kind of mental and emotional energy out to the universe.  Perhaps their life experiences make the key players better able to do this than your average person.  Their collective focus plus the island's properties perhaps creates a situation where a few people can have a critical impact upon the fate of all of humanity.)

3.11 Update

The man in the eye-patch, who is now my top candidate for Jacob, told a tale to Kate and company that he later said was false in only one point. He’d claimed to be the only surviving member of the Dharma Initiative when in fact he was not. What are the other things he said that were supposedly true?

1) The DI was challenged and defeated by a group that they called “Hostiles”.

2) The man in the eye-patch only arrived on the island 11 years ago after being recruited.

3) The people who had been called “Hostiles” had been on the island much longer than the DI had.

If these points are, in fact, true, then it would seem that “the Others” are “the Hostiles”. (Remember how Ben claimed to have been born there, but he is certainly older than 30 years… a fact that might be explained by the cloning theories, I know, but I digress.) Also, the indications that the island is one whose properties have been known for ages (the four-toed statue, the Black Rock) may also point to a single group that has occupied or otherwise “engaged” the island for (at least) hundreds of years. If this is so, then the DI would represent only very recent activity of this “older” group on the island.

All of this suggests to me that the DI was something the older group used to accomplish a specific goal, and when that goal was accomplished a conflict emerged between the DI (those who were new to the island, anyway) and members of the older group that eventually resulted in the DI being wiped out (over 16 years ago, I’m guessing, given that nobody seemed to care when the Swan Station transmission was hijacked by a woman speaking French… and Ben certainly wasn’t bothered when the station was destroyed outright).

So who is this older group and what purpose did the DI serve? Well, to the latter part of the question, the DI certainly served to provide valuable research in, I think, paranormal psychology. I think the reason this research was important was because it is supposed to eventually help save humanity from extinction. Perhaps they really just wanted to master certain paranormal forces and get the future-predicting equation and once they had those things the scientists and utopia-seekers were just in the way. One way or another, though, the DI seems to have been a “victim” of the island every bit as much as the plane crash victims and the sailors of the Black Rock.

And the older group? Well, Illuminati is a tempting candidate, as always, but I have to admit that they would be a disappointing one for me. I wonder if, in fact, the older group actually goes back farther even than the Illuminati would.

3.12 Update

Before his grisly death, the eye-patch guy revealed that the reason a person might not be on "the list" is because of her or his anger and fear.  People with too much anger and fear cannot hope to fathom, apparently, the truth of what is going on with the island.  The ones who are capable of understanding it are taken.  Perhaps the ones that are left are "taught" via experiences initiated by the Others.

All of this suggests that whatever special gifts are operating within those who are abducted, they are gifts that all of us have the potential to possess if only we become more "enlightened".  Such "enlightened" people seem to be very useful to the powers that be, while others who are not or cannot be enlightened are somewhat disposable.

In my thinking, the "lessons learned" in this process are not the point.  The island is not Purgatory.  In fact, in my observation, neither the island nor the Others particularly care about a person's karma.  What they do care about, however, is if a person has gifts that will be useful.  The fact that some people who are not useful when they arrive can become useful by being "trained" (and thus they can learn lessons, grow, and become enlightened) is actually a bit of a side issue.

Also... insofar as Jack has been revealed to have a somewhat messianic destiny, the same might be said of his nephew Aaron (Claire’s son… Jack’s relation to Aaron was made known in episode 3.12). A special destiny for Aaron would explain the odd behavior of Claire’s psychic as well as Charlie’s odd vision of Claire as Mary, the Mother of Christ.

It makes one wonder… had lightening struck the shelter that Charlie, Claire, AND Aaron were in, how would Claire and Aaron have survived if Charlie were electrocuted? What does Desmond know about Claire and Aaron and their respective destinies?

AND

As of episode 3.12, Christian (Jack’s father) is connected to nearly every important person on the island, including people suspected to be on “Jacob’s List”. Perhaps this is no coincidence. Could Christian be the man behind it all? Here are some speculations based on this idea.

Like the woman who challenged Desmond in the jewelry store, Christian is a man who works for the powers that be “in the field”. But his connection to so many people in Lost suggests he is a person of much greater importance. All of Christian’s dealings with Jack… pushing him, testing him… are telling in this context. Christian’s conversation with Sawyer in the bar takes on new meaning as well when one considers that it was calculated. (A fatherless man hearing the confessions of a failed father… Sawyer of all people would remember such a conversation.) It also becomes not-so-surprising that Jack found his father’s coffin empty.

So what exactly is Christian up to? Well, this might be where genetic manipulation or cloning theories come in. What if, during the Dharma Initiative studies, certain gifted individuals were discovered who could be used to help bring about the future state of the universe that would preserve humanity (that is, prevent the future state that would see the annihilation of humanity)? Perhaps these people were not going to survive to the critical time in Earth’s history, or perhaps, if they would survive, more people with such gifts were needed. Since their gifts are genetic, a clone of such a person should have the same gifts, even if not the same memories or life experiences. However, that doesn’t mean that the life of the cloned individual doesn’t need to be guided and nurtured. And this is where Christian comes in.

(Note that this idea assumes that each person on the island lived an actual individual life and their memories are real, not implanted, and they actually did crash-land on the island. However, their births and other features of their lives were directly engineered with the help of genetic manipulation (perhaps cloning) and future-predicting technology.)

The unusually meaningful names might be explained in this scenario. For some time I’ve thought the names were just the writers having fun, like so many other little “clues” dropped here and there (like the titles of books and even the pages being read by characters… fun tidbits but not really critical to the plot). But if characters like Desmond and John and Jack are all genetically engineered or cloned individuals (or even of very specific importance in the destiny of humankind, for that matter), then their parentage and family history are completely contrived, so why wouldn’t the powers responsible for contriving them pick such names (much in the same manner that the writer of a contrived script might)?

It is interesting to note that of all the people who might have a very obvious connection to Christian, it’s John. He, after all, suffered from some kind of spinal injury. If there IS a Christian-John connection revealed in future episodes, I think that would be very suggestive indeed.

3.13 Update

Also, Ben alludes to the notion that folks can make things happen on the island, as if it were a box that could make any wish come true if one believed hard enough.  He also confirmed, though, that not just anyone will be capable of making the box work.  Individuals with a special "communion" with the island are key.

And... is John's father the original Sawyer? I've been told that this has been speculated before elsewhere, but I confess it's the first time I've considered it.  (Apparently, the notion that Christian is in the ranks of the "powers that be" is an old one also, but it only came to me recently.)

3.14 Update

Ben was rather frank with Juliet in episode 3.14. This suggests a relationship of considerable intimacy, especially in light of what may have been revealed regarding Ben’s relationship to others among “his people”.

This poses some questions, I think. How honest is Juliet being with Jack? Did she really want Jack to kill Ben, or was that all a ruse? Did Juliet really ever intend to get off of the island? Of course, these are questions that have always existed in regard to Juliet, but perhaps they are given more weight now.

If Juliet willed the bus to kill her ex-husband, then it could be that she has felt “a commune” with the island herself, and may have the same mentality toward the island that John has (although perhaps more tolerant of Ben’s “cheating”). If so, then perhaps she and Ben are in greater accord than she’s often allowed it to appear.

Of course, she could still be totally against Ben, only playing along with him in order to acquire the confidence she has, in fact, so clearly won.

But I tend to think that if you’re going to place bets on who is REALLY in control… the safe money’s on Ben.