Speculation based on hypothetical rules of succession...
What follows are essentially old observations revisited with information from season four. Which means that much of it is stating the obvious, but the important thing is the “big picture” of it all, so please bear with me. Comments greatly appreciated.
The island is a source and attractor of paranormal power.
The island causes things to happen (or not happen) in such a manner as to make it appear to have a will of its own. More importantly, it seems to act with specific aims in mind. It seems to be looking forward to and preparing for a particular future event. There is a way to know what the specific aims of the island are, apparently, to the extent that one might know WHO is critical to those aims… to the extent that one can know that critical people will be protected by supernatural means until their usefulness to the island has expired.
In other words, someone knows just what the island wants and just who is important to the island in securing those wants. Jacob seems to be a person who has this knowledge.
“The Others” are reverent toward the island and its power.
“The Others” believe they ought to be led by individuals with paranormal power, regardless of what that power is.
Since the island healed John, they believe he is a person of paranormal power.
Since Ben could communicate with the dead, he was once thought to be a person of paranormal power.
Ben was exceptionally intelligent and skilled in manipulation, but his power was significantly enhanced by the insights he could gain from Jacob.
Ben’s gifts were similar to those of Miles. He got information from ghosts in a similar fashion. But recall that once Miles had gotten information from a ghost, he told it that it “could go now”. Ben used Jacob for information without releasing him.
Widmore is also a person of paranormal power. So he also once ruled the island. His power may be prophetic dreams. (This might also be John’s power.)
Widmore was able to somehow (through direct or indirect contact) conspire with Jacob. Jacob would con Ben while, in return, Widmore would set Jacob free.
The con worked, causing Ben to make bonehead mistakes (like letting John see where he hid the tape recorder with Juliet’s messages on it… but I’m still not sure that wasn’t deliberate) and making Ben lose his grip on the island.
John was sent to the island by Widmore. Widmore knew the plane would crash, but he also knew John would survive (he might have been interested in some of the other survivors as well) because of John’s usefulness to the island.
The first episode of Lost wasn’t titled “Pilot” simply because it was the show’s first episode. The title was supposed to point us to the pilot of the airplane. The smoke monster killed the pilot and we know now that this couldn’t have been accidental. The pilot was known to Ben to be an agent of Widmore. (Frank, perhaps, had been bumped as the pilot of flight 815 for a reason.)
The rules that Widmore changed involved the rules of succession on the island. John wasn’t ready to take over the island yet, but Widmore sent John and this forced the process of succession to begin before it might have had Widmore not interfered. Sending John was part of Widmore’s agreement with Jacob, because once John took over, Jacob would be free. In return, Jacob fed Ben false information, including information that his daughter Alex would be spared when Widmore’s soldiers invaded the island. When Alex was killed, Ben knew that he’d been had. In Ben’s last words to Jacob, he looked to the sky… to “Heaven”, if you will… because he knew Jacob had finally been released.
Christian now takes Jacob’s place.
John not being ready to lead, disaster will be a feature of his rule. Widmore bet on this because his reason for installing John prematurely was not only to unseat Ben, but also to find the island eventually himself.
One thing that “chosen” people on the island share in common is a premature birth. Ben was somehow causing the premature births on the island. This was a way for him to test each birth to see if it would be “the one”. Of course, he wanted to have early and certain knowledge of who the next “one” was so that he could control (and perhaps kill) that child. He never intended for Juliet to find a cure for the pregnancy issues. He brought her to the island because of her resemblance to Annie.
The reason the issues only afflicted women who conceived on the island was because Ben knew his people wouldn’t be as impressed by a newborn who was conceived off the island (explaining why Ben found it valuable to lie about his own off-island origins). Babies conceived on the island were automatically considered “more special”, so those where the only pregnancies Ben needed to concern himself with in his search for “the one”. (It may be that Ben believed a prophecy that referred to “the one” as being conceived on the island.)
So… that’s all I got. Again, comments are welcome.
Re: Jacob and the Children
I like that idea that Walt freed Jacob--the timing is good.
Jacob causing the deaths--in order to try to influence the pregnancy to create the child that would free him?
What about the Handlers?
Hello Prof. Its been a long time. I see you are still hard at work trying to solve the Lost enigma. Well done.
After reading through your notes, I asked myself what is the purpose of the handlers, people like Ms.Hawking and Brother Campbell who seemed to guide Desmond down his path? The entire point of their existence seems to be that they know something about the bigger picture and for the world not to end, certain people, like Des, and events must follow a specific path to allow/prevent this to/from happening.
What is your take on this set of person(s) who seem to know what has or will happen if certain events don't take place?
And lastly, I've never been able to explain why John Locke held the burning ember to the bottom of his foot, yet felt no pain. That is not scientifically logical, unless that was not his true physical self he applied the ember to.
Good question, Stip...
... and I guess I tend to think that the "handlers" are just following orders from Widmore. But they could be following orders from someone else... or they could just be "free agents" in the story and not really handlers at all.
Heh... none of that really answers your question... but my point is there are many ways they could yet fit into the story. I really don't know which is right.
When John lost the use of his legs in the pit, it was kind of suggested that this was a psychological thing for him. "Giant Ghost Walt" told him that he could move his legs in spite of his insistence that he couldn't. To be honest, I don't think this element of John's character will be further explained.My first reaction
is that it's really tight--you've got so much covered in a way that makes good, narrative sense, and would be easy to show. I likes it a lot :-)
The one amendment I would make is to the on/off island conception idea--that one seems to rest too much on a somewhat flimsy assumption. It would make more sense to tie the pregnancy plot into the time discrepancy between the island and everywhere else.
Question--if John is Widmore's pawn against Ben--why not have the smoke monster kill John off? It seemed that you were implying that Ben had some control over smokie in dispatching of the Pilot, so why when John first meets it in the woods does he see something beautiful? And when he's grabbed later was he being naive in his assumption that he was safe? I always thought not.
Maybe what needs to be worked out is this idea of "ruling the island." Or, in other words, is the succession to a post of island ruler or of island proxy, (all of the above :-))?
OK... except...
... there really isn't a time discrepancy between the island and everywhere else. (And... I guess I'm not certain how that would matter if there were... can you help me out with that one? 
)
Ben wouldn't have sent the smoke monster to kill John because he'd know that John couldn't BE killed. Or, maybe when John saw the smoke monster the first time it had been sent there to kill John but couldn't do it, so Ben sent it later to abduct him instead.
Right...
right--I get confused still about the time issues. You're right there isn't a discrepancy. But something is going on on the island that relates to temporality in allowing the same kind of consciousness jumps that Dan performed in the lab, and affecting the appearance of light. There's also something in the barrier between the island and the rest of the world which affects temporal perception--time dilations that look like what happens in a Minkowski diagram. Maybe that wouldn't affect pregnancies--and if it did it would seem like it would affect the ones that were conceived off island more than the ones on island. But overall the show has introduced the idea that something is going on that affects the laws of physics--maybe even the possibility that those numbers on which existence is based have been played around with. It seems like something like that would tie in to the pregnancy problems more than the idea that Ben caused them--'cause how did Ben cause them? In a paranormal way? With what ability? Or just by giving the women some kind of drug?--it just introduces a lot of new questions to me that don't seem to connect to what's already been shown. But here's an alternative that kind of plays with what you're speculating--say that Ben knows his successor has to be a premature birth and that he further knows that being that close to the island's power will 'cause women to give birth prematurely (to "chosen" children--if they could only survive). Then maybe he actually did want to have one of those children survive--one that he could raise and influence, rather than have someone like John brought in from the outside by his opponent?
ETA: Forgot to add in this idea about what might be causing the on island pregnancy problems. If something like the many worlds/many minds concept is eventually tied to the appearance of dead people, then the opening of alternative versions of reality (based on alternative choice/decision) would seem like it could have a lot of impact on conception--worlds in which someone never even physically existed because of a different set of circumstances/choices made by the potential parents. So if the reality of those worlds is competing with the reality of this world, could that mean the pregnancies never come to fruition?
Yeah, I like that--Ben sent the smoke monster to kill John but it didn't happen 'cause it's the island who ultimately determines when someone lives or dies. It couldn't do it. That's elegant and explains the abduction too.
Whoa...
I've been away from the boards for most of the summer dealing with a heavy work load and some sick family members and what do I find when I come back? A huge back log of excellent theories that will take my poor little brain several months to grasp - seriously you guys are awesome!! Professor this is a great thread with some very good insights and as always I'm impressed with Jazz's comments as well.
I really like the idea that smokie would have killed Locke but was not able to because of an intervention by... the island? Jacob? Widmore? Prof I think you're right about Ben having sent smokie to abduct Locke - it ties in well with Ben telling Locke in the hatch that his reason for being there was "I came for you John." I've mentioned this before but I do find it interesting though that if Ben really did want Locke why did he have to go to such lengths to get him?
Locke left camp alone pretty much every day to hunt boar, explore the island, dig out the hatch etc. Why didn't Ben simply have some of the Others grab him then? Do the Others know something that would have stopped them from taking Locke as they had so many of the other survivors? And when Ben created the list of people for Michael to bring to them (I'm assuming Ben gave Ms. Klugh the list in the same way he told Harper what to tell Juliet) - so again why wasn't Locke on that list with Sawyer, Jack and Kate? There has to be more going on here than we realizing.
Richard visited Locke at his birth and then kept tabs on him as he grew up. He arranged to meet and test him at an early age but then seemed upset with the results. Abaddon later suggested that Locke go on the walkabout which supports the Prof's suggestion that Widmore sent Locke to the island. It also supports the idea that Widmore plans to resume control of the island when he returns since it was already determined that Locke wasn't the "one". Had he been the next true successor it's unlikely that Widmore would be able to unseat him. What I don't understand is why Richard not only accepted Locke as a leader but also tried to help him become the Others leader. He already knows that Locke isn't the "chosen one" from his tests on him as a boy. Why would he now accept him as their leader? Is he also part of Widmore's group? Could he be undermining Ben to help Widmore? We know he has doubts about Ben but then he's the one responsible for Ben even being part of the Others. Loyalty is a bitch on this island isn't it? Once you've served your purpose your finished - literally!
So on to the pregnancy issue. I have a different take on this than most of you. What if this is part of the "test " to find the chosen one? Perhaps the island is indirectly causing the problem through the improved health and strength the island causes. We know that once on the island, people heal quickly and the Others appear to have extraordinary strength. We also know that Juliet pointed to the mother's immune system as part of the issue causing their deaths. What if the improvement in vitality also effects the man's sperm in a way that causes it to alter the embryo which the causes mother's body views it as a parasite? This would cause a response in her immune system to begin to fight off the pregnancy as if it were a virus. Perhaps the chosen one will be determined simply by surviving until birth.
This would be an interesting parallel to Jesus' birth in that Christians celebrate Jesus' Mother as a Saint and the island's savior's birth would be considered a miracle in and of itself. His Mother would certainly be viewed in much the same way as well. Maybe that's the reason we keep seeing the Mary imagery throughout the show.
Any way I'm clearly a bit rusty on the Lost stuff so please disregard my flawed ramblings! Hopefully I'll be able to catch up and get ready for the January kick off to season 5. Namaste!
On the Others not nabbing Locke
It seems to me that everyone in the Others' camp was excited about the prospect of Locke as the new leader, so Ben intentionally kept them away from him as he represented a threat to his primacy.
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Right, LC, but...
Precisely
Ben wouldn't send the Others after Locke if he thought that Locke represented a threat he had to deal with personally.
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Not quite seeing that...
Not at all, Jukin...
... in fact, I think you've come up with a very clever reason for why women aren't carrying babies to term.
I hope those sick family members are better! It's good to have you back.
Some other thoughts here...
... maybe Walt was involved in freeing Jacob or otherwise "changing the rules"?
Perhaps Jacob was the one causing the deaths of the mothers because HE was searching for a child who would free him? It's very odd that Jacob could heal cancer in someone half a world away but he couldn't prevent mothers and their babies from dying.